A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
